ASX 200: 5 Key Things to Watch on Thursday | Stock Market News (2026)

The ASX 200 is poised for an intriguing day on Thursday, with several factors influencing the market's trajectory. But will the positive momentum continue? Here's what investors should keep an eye on:

ASX 200 Set for a Rise

The Australian share market is gearing up for a promising start to Thursday's trading session, mirroring the upbeat sentiment on Wall Street. The ASX 200 is forecast to open 0.5% higher, building on the previous day's gains. This prediction is based on the SPI futures, which indicate a 46-point increase at the open. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed higher in late US trade, providing a positive backdrop for the ASX.

Rio Tinto's Results in Focus

All eyes will be on Rio Tinto Ltd as it unveils its full-year results. Analysts from Morgans anticipate a 4.3% revenue growth to US$55.96 billion and a substantial 13.8% jump in EBITDA to US$26.54 billion. These figures imply a 13.6% year-on-year increase in total dividends to US$4.54 per share. Morgans highlights the company's strong Q4 performance and rising metal prices as key factors. But here's where it gets interesting: will the market have already priced in these expectations, as Morgans suggests?

Oil Prices Surge

ASX energy stocks Beach Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd are poised for a potential rally after oil prices soared overnight. The WTI crude oil price jumped 4.5% to US$65.17 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose 4.3% to US$70.33 per barrel. This surge was fueled by Iran's defiance of US demands, creating a tense geopolitical backdrop. And this is the part most people miss: how will the market react to this unexpected development?

TechnologyOne Shares Upgraded

Brokerage firm Bell Potter has upgraded TechnologyOne Ltd shares to a 'buy' rating, albeit with a reduced price target of $29.00. The company's first-half results in May may not provide a significant catalyst, but Bell Potter anticipates a reiteration of guidance, which could boost investor confidence. The broker's optimism is a notable shift, but will the market share this sentiment?

Gold Shines Bright

ASX gold shares like Newmont Corporation and Northern Star Resources Ltd are set for a positive session as gold prices surged 2.1% to US$5,010.60 per ounce. Traders are buying the precious metal ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes and in response to escalating Iran-US tensions. But what does this mean for the broader market? Will the rise in gold prices impact other sectors?

As the ASX 200 prepares for a potentially eventful day, investors should stay tuned for these developments and more. The market's reaction to these news items will be crucial in determining the overall sentiment. And remember, in the world of investing, every day brings new surprises and opportunities. Stay informed, stay curious, and keep an eye on these five key factors.

ASX 200: 5 Key Things to Watch on Thursday | Stock Market News (2026)

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